Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) — Trading the Jobs Report
Overview
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) is the most market-moving economic release in the world, published the first Friday of each month and capable of triggering massive moves in forex, equities, and bonds. The report covers headline job creation, average hourly earnings, and the unemployment rate — three figures that directly shape central bank policy expectations. This guide explains what the NFP report contains, how markets typically react, and practical strategies for trading the aftermath. NFP analysis is a cornerstone of our macro trading strategy and pairs well with the broader concepts covered in the macro academy.
Key Takeaways
- NFP measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding farm workers and a few other categories.
- Average Hourly Earnings (wages) and the Unemployment Rate are released alongside NFP.
- A strong NFP (well above consensus) is initially bullish for USD and bearish for bonds.
- The revision to the prior month's number can be as market-moving as the headline figure.
Practical Tips
- Avoid placing directional bets in the minutes before NFP — whipsaws are extreme.
- Wait for the 15-minute settle after the release before entering a directional trade.
- Set wider-than-usual stop-losses on NFP day to account for volatility spikes.
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