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General TradingI

Inverted Yield Curve

A rare situation where short-term bonds yield more than long-term bonds, inverting the normal yield curve shape. Widely considered one of the most reliable predictors of an upcoming economic recession.

Example

For example, in 2022 the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rose above the 10-year yield, creating an inverted yield curve that many analysts cited as a warning of a potential recession in 2023-2024.