A mathematical model that plots Bitcoin's price on a logarithmic scale over time, creating a corridor of expected prices. Based on the observation that Bitcoin's price follows a power law relationship with time.
Price at the top of the power law band suggests overvaluation; price near the bottom suggests undervaluation. The model suggests diminishing returns over successive cycles.
A composite indicator combining multiple pricing models to identify when Bitcoin has entered an unsustainably euphoric phase. Triggers when multiple independent models simultaneously signal overvaluation.
The aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation, calculated by dividing the Realised Cap by the total supply. Each UTXO is valued at the price it was last moved. This creates an on-chain average purchase price for the entire network.
Realised HODL Ratio — compares the realised value of 1-week-old coins to 1-2 year-old coins. Measures the ratio between speculative and conviction capital in the market.
The ratio of Bitcoin's price to its 200-day moving average. Created by Trace Mayer. A simple but effective measure of whether Bitcoin is overextended or undervalued relative to its longer-term trend.