Net Unrealised Profit/Loss — measures the total profit or loss of all Bitcoin holders as a proportion of market cap. Calculated as (Market Cap - Realised Cap) / Market Cap.
NUPL > 0.75 signals euphoria and potential cycle tops. NUPL between 0.5-0.75 is belief/optimism. NUPL < 0 means the market is in capitulation — historically excellent buying zones.
Realised HODL Ratio — compares the realised value of 1-week-old coins to 1-2 year-old coins. Measures the ratio between speculative and conviction capital in the market.
The average acquisition cost of Short-Term Holders (coins moved within the last 155 days). Represents the cost basis of recent market participants and speculators.
Market Value to Realised Value — the ratio between Bitcoin's market cap and its realised cap. Measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to the aggregate cost basis of all holders.
A composite indicator combining multiple pricing models to identify when Bitcoin has entered an unsustainably euphoric phase. Triggers when multiple independent models simultaneously signal overvaluation.